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Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Calliope Hummingbird In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Calliope Hummingbird in Coastal California has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-89%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Calliope Hummingbird has collapsed in Coastal California: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Calliope Hummingbird In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Calliope Hummingbird in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±652.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±652.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Calliope Hummingbird in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±652.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.11
20250.000.000.11
20260.000.000.11
20270.000.000.11
20280.000.000.11

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Calliope Hummingbird in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big BearCALIFORNIA71981
Mt PinosCALIFORNIA11993
Lake HemetCALIFORNIA11970
ValyermoCALIFORNIA11978
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA11973
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA12023
Gold HillCALIFORNIA11985

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.