BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

California Scrub-Jay In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

California Scrub-Jay in Great Basin has increased: up 38% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+38%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for California Scrub-Jay in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

California Scrub-Jay In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Scrub-Jay in Great Basin is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.15–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.50Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–0.8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Scrub-Jay in Great Basin is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.15–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.500.150.86
20260.500.150.86
20270.500.150.86
20280.500.150.85
20290.500.150.85

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording California Scrub-Jay in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron GateCALIFORNIA302019
SnowdenWASHINGTON152024
Mt HoodOREGON102024
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA92011
Modoc PointOREGON82018
NubieberCALIFORNIA62018
TionestaCALIFORNIA62021
Barnes ValOREGON61972
MacdoelCALIFORNIA52019
DeschutesOREGON42024
MadelineCALIFORNIA32022
Modoc Point 2OREGON32024
IngallsCALIFORNIA22001
RavendaleCALIFORNIA22024
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA22018
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA22016
Comins LakeNEVADA22016
LikelyCALIFORNIA12024
Davis CreekCALIFORNIA12024
DorrisCALIFORNIA12018
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA12019
BartleCALIFORNIA12013
Fandango CanOREGON12024
BlyOREGON11988
MerrillOREGON12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.