BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

California Scrub-Jay In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

California Scrub-Jay in Great Basin has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+68%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

California Scrub-Jay has risen sharply in Great Basin: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

California Scrub-Jay In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Scrub-Jay in Great Basin is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.14–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Scrub-Jay in Great Basin is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.14–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.490.140.84
20270.490.140.84
20280.490.140.84
20290.490.140.84
20300.490.140.84

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording California Scrub-Jay in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron GateCALIFORNIA302019
SnowdenWASHINGTON102025
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA92011
IngallsCALIFORNIA82025
Modoc PointOREGON82018
Mt HoodOREGON82025
DeschutesOREGON72025
NubieberCALIFORNIA62018
RavendaleCALIFORNIA62025
TionestaCALIFORNIA62021
Barnes ValOREGON61972
MacdoelCALIFORNIA52019
Modoc Point 2OREGON52025
Davis CreekCALIFORNIA42025
MadelineCALIFORNIA32022
SelahWASHINGTON32025
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA22018
SistersOREGON22025
LikelyCALIFORNIA12024
DorrisCALIFORNIA12018
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA12019
BartleCALIFORNIA12013
Fandango CanOREGON12025
BlyOREGON11988
MerrillOREGON12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.