BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

California Scrub-Jay In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

California Scrub-Jay in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+66%Since 1970
9Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

California Scrub-Jay has risen sharply in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Scrub-Jay in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.15–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2029
1.1Projected 2029 index
0.15–2.195% range
±88%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.10.132.0
20261.10.142.0
20271.10.142.0
20281.10.142.1
20291.10.152.1

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording California Scrub-Jay in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
OnyxCALIFORNIA272015
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA132024
PearblossomCALIFORNIA62024
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA42002
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA22016
Willow SpgsCALIFORNIA11971
BarstowCALIFORNIA11998
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA12024
Cholla Gard.CALIFORNIA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.