BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

California Scrub-Jay In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

California Scrub-Jay in Coastal California has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-1%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
115Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for California Scrub-Jay in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

California Scrub-Jay In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Scrub-Jay in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 14–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Scrub-Jay in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 14–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201427
2026201427
2027201427
2028201427
2029201427

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording California Scrub-Jay in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ColmaCALIFORNIA1151972
AuburnCALIFORNIA731980
JacumbaCALIFORNIA712024
GravesboroCALIFORNIA611995
White RiverCALIFORNIA611992
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA552024
SisquocCALIFORNIA532014
Lake CachumaCALIFORNIA482016
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA472024
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA462011
Anza 2CALIFORNIA442024
Mt LagunaCALIFORNIA431987
RumseyCALIFORNIA422008
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA402019
CoalingaCALIFORNIA402022
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA392019
AnzaCALIFORNIA352004
HughsonCALIFORNIA332024
Lake BerryessaCALIFORNIA332024
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA332024
TehamaCALIFORNIA332022
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA312024
Gold HillCALIFORNIA312024
CoyoteCALIFORNIA312024
South LakeCALIFORNIA312006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.