BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

California Scrub-Jay In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

California Scrub-Jay in Coastal California has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+3%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
115Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for California Scrub-Jay in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

California Scrub-Jay In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Scrub-Jay in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 20 (95% range 14–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Scrub-Jay in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 20 (95% range 14–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201427
2027201427
2028201427
2029201426
2030201426

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording California Scrub-Jay in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ColmaCALIFORNIA1151972
AuburnCALIFORNIA731980
JacumbaCALIFORNIA622025
GravesboroCALIFORNIA611995
White RiverCALIFORNIA611992
Lake BerryessaCALIFORNIA552025
SisquocCALIFORNIA532014
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA532025
CoyoteCALIFORNIA522025
Lake CachumaCALIFORNIA482016
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA462011
Mt LagunaCALIFORNIA431987
RumseyCALIFORNIA422008
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA402019
CoalingaCALIFORNIA402022
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA392019
GreenfieldCALIFORNIA392025
LockwoodCALIFORNIA382025
AnzaCALIFORNIA352004
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA342025
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA342025
Anza 2CALIFORNIA342025
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA332024
TehamaCALIFORNIA332022
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA312025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.