BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

California Scrub-Jay In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

California Scrub-Jay in Sierra Nevada has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-80%Since 1970
28Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

California Scrub-Jay has collapsed in Sierra Nevada: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Scrub-Jay in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2029
2.0Projected 2029 index
0.00–5.695% range
±90.6%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.20.005.9
20262.20.005.8
20272.10.005.7
20282.10.005.7
20292.00.005.6

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording California Scrub-Jay in Sierra Nevada.
KernvilleCALIFORNIA442008
Silver CityCALIFORNIA392013
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA332019
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA142019
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA102024
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA82008
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA62024
WawonaCALIFORNIA52024
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA42016
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA31975
Forest HillCALIFORNIA32022
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA21988
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA22021
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA22024
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA22001
Forest Hill 2CALIFORNIA22005
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12021
WestvilleCALIFORNIA11986
SattleyCALIFORNIA12008
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA11977
GeneseeCALIFORNIA11992
DownievilleCALIFORNIA12017
RivertonCALIFORNIA12018
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA12003
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.