BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

California Gull In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWetland birds

California Gull in Northern Pacific Rainforest has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+66%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

California Gull has risen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, California Gull in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 16× by 2024 — from 0.06 in 2019 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1920.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

16×Change by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1920.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, California Gull in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 16× by 2024 — from 0.06 in 2019 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1920.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.980.004.9
20210.990.004.9
20221.00.004.9
20231.00.004.9
20241.00.005.0

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording California Gull in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TaholahWASHINGTON9002008
OzetteWASHINGTON381995
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON322018
HoneydewCALIFORNIA162017
CougarWASHINGTON91991
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA51993
MendotaWASHINGTON51980
RaymondWASHINGTON52019
KetchikanALASKA32015
NavarroCALIFORNIA31974
WedderburnOREGON31996
HullvilleCALIFORNIA21980
YrekaCALIFORNIA22018
Zimovia StrtALASKA11995
ZaremboALASKA11996
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA11981
MccloudCALIFORNIA11996
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA11976
TualatinOREGON11977
AdairOREGON11997
Hazel CampOREGON12009
Port AngelesWASHINGTON12009
Warm BeachWASHINGTON12008
CamasWASHINGTON11995
CarnationWASHINGTON11990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.