BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Burrowing Owl In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertBirds of prey

Burrowing Owl in Chihuahuan Desert has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+56%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Burrowing Owl has risen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Burrowing Owl In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 88% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.03–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+88%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 88% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.03–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.510.021.0
20270.520.021.0
20280.520.021.0
20290.520.021.0
20300.520.031.0

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Burrowing Owl in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO82025
SlaughterTEXAS61999
RoswellNEW-MEXICO42023
MarfaTEXAS42023
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO22003
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO22024
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO22010
CornudasTEXAS22006
GirvinTEXAS22024
Casa PiedraTEXAS22004
PresidioTEXAS22022
Coyanda DrawTEXAS22024
Salt FlatTEXAS21995
MarathonTEXAS22025
Van HornTEXAS22017
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO11977
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO12009
GageNEW-MEXICO12019
DemingNEW-MEXICO11971
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12018
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO12017
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12024
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO11996
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12024
MesillaNEW-MEXICO12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.