BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Burrowing Owl In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Burrowing Owl in Chihuahuan Desert has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+41%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Burrowing Owl in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Burrowing Owl In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 91% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.03–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+91%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 91% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.03–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.520.021.0
20260.520.021.0
20270.520.021.0
20280.520.021.0
20290.530.031.0

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Burrowing Owl in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO142023
SlaughterTEXAS61999
RoswellNEW-MEXICO42023
MarfaTEXAS42023
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO22003
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO22024
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO22010
CornudasTEXAS22006
GirvinTEXAS22024
Casa PiedraTEXAS22004
PresidioTEXAS22022
Coyanda DrawTEXAS22024
Salt FlatTEXAS21995
MarathonTEXAS22023
Van HornTEXAS22017
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO11977
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO12009
GageNEW-MEXICO12019
DemingNEW-MEXICO11971
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12018
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO12017
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12024
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO11996
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12024
MesillaNEW-MEXICO12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.