BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Burrowing Owl In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Burrowing Owl in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+87%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Burrowing Owl has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Burrowing Owl In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±203.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±203.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±203.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.003.9
20261.40.003.9
20271.40.003.9
20281.30.003.8
20291.30.003.8

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Burrowing Owl in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrawleyCALIFORNIA292012
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA242018
Cactus ForestARIZONA152024
NilandCALIFORNIA112024
CoolidgeARIZONA21983
AntaresARIZONA22013
GoldstoneCALIFORNIA22005
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA22022
Eureka ValCALIFORNIA21993
LenwoodCALIFORNIA21984
CottonwoodCALIFORNIA22011
OatmanARIZONA12013
VicksburgARIZONA11979
LagunaARIZONA12005
DatelandARIZONA12015
Palo VerdeARIZONA12011
ArabyARIZONA12017
Red RockARIZONA12008
Casa GrandeARIZONA12019
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA12024
Calif CityCALIFORNIA12015
Willow SpgsCALIFORNIA11981
BarstowCALIFORNIA11996
GlamisCALIFORNIA11968
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA11984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.