BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Burrowing Owl In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaBirds of prey

Burrowing Owl in Coastal California has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-93%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Burrowing Owl has collapsed in Coastal California: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Burrowing Owl In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Coastal California is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±169.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±169.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Coastal California is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±169.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.78
20270.000.000.78
20280.000.000.78
20290.000.000.78
20300.000.000.78

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Burrowing Owl in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA162002
OilfieldsCALIFORNIA151981
TranquillityCALIFORNIA152004
Buena VistaCALIFORNIA72019
HollisterCALIFORNIA62007
AtwaterCALIFORNIA52007
CaruthersCALIFORNIA41986
BakersfieldCALIFORNIA42004
MorenoCALIFORNIA42012
San YsidroCALIFORNIA31976
VentucopaCALIFORNIA31972
Carrizo PlnCALIFORNIA32025
ShafterCALIFORNIA31989
ArvinCALIFORNIA32016
Hollister 2CALIFORNIA32012
RiovistaCALIFORNIA22018
CollegevilleCALIFORNIA22004
HughsonCALIFORNIA21987
OrlandCALIFORNIA22001
AthloneCALIFORNIA21989
PenningtonCALIFORNIA11978
CohassetCALIFORNIA11984
PowayCALIFORNIA11974
S CatalinaCALIFORNIA11993
MaricopaCALIFORNIA11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.