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Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Burrowing Owl In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Burrowing Owl in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-40%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Burrowing Owl in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-78%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.27
20260.080.000.27
20270.080.000.27
20280.070.000.26
20290.070.000.26

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Burrowing Owl in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RandlettOKLAHOMA182024
GoveKANSAS71998
RosstonOKLAHOMA72018
Ash ValleyKANSAS32014
KenesawNEBRASKA31973
AlmeriaNEBRASKA31987
HollisOKLAHOMA31993
Beaver CreekTEXAS32005
St JohnKANSAS21971
AlbertKANSAS21968
HaysKANSAS21985
CovertKANSAS21969
HopewellKANSAS22008
RexfordKANSAS22024
StrattonNEBRASKA22016
BartlettNEBRASKA21968
JohnstownNEBRASKA21980
TableNEBRASKA22017
Crescent LkNEBRASKA22013
ReedOKLAHOMA22017
GraybackTEXAS22004
HackberryTEXAS21993
CoatsKANSAS11967
ColdwaterKANSAS11979
AshlandKANSAS12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.