BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Burrowing Owl In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieBirds of prey

Burrowing Owl in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Burrowing Owl in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Burrowing Owl In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.000.28
20270.080.000.28
20280.080.000.27
20290.080.000.27
20300.080.000.27

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Burrowing Owl in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GoveKANSAS71998
RosstonOKLAHOMA72018
RandlettOKLAHOMA62025
Ash ValleyKANSAS32014
KenesawNEBRASKA31973
AlmeriaNEBRASKA31987
Beaver CreekTEXAS32005
St JohnKANSAS21971
AlbertKANSAS21968
HaysKANSAS21985
CovertKANSAS21969
HopewellKANSAS22008
StrattonNEBRASKA22016
BartlettNEBRASKA21968
JohnstownNEBRASKA21980
TableNEBRASKA22017
Crescent LkNEBRASKA22013
SutherlandNEBRASKA22025
ReedOKLAHOMA22017
GraybackTEXAS22004
HackberryTEXAS21993
CoatsKANSAS11967
ColdwaterKANSAS11979
AshlandKANSAS12017
GrayKANSAS12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.