BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Burrowing Owl In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieBirds of prey

Burrowing Owl in Shortgrass Prairie has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+69%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Burrowing Owl has risen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Burrowing Owl In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.4–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.4–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.01.34.6
20273.01.44.6
20283.01.44.6
20293.01.44.6
20303.01.44.6

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Burrowing Owl in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PantexTEXAS912024
Arsenal 2COLORADO342025
NeegrandeCOLORADO272025
GilpinCOLORADO222025
StonehamCOLORADO202025
PecosTEXAS182017
BoyeroCOLORADO162017
HaswellCOLORADO162024
EdlerCOLORADO162025
PritchettCOLORADO152025
HookerOKLAHOMA142025
BriggsdaleCOLORADO122025
DalhartTEXAS112025
Sheridan LakCOLORADO102016
GrigstonKANSAS102022
KirkCOLORADO92023
CampoCOLORADO82025
UlyssesKANSAS82025
FeltOKLAHOMA82024
TexlineTEXAS82025
KeyesOKLAHOMA72024
RushCOLORADO62025
Last Chance 2COLORADO62025
DoughertyTEXAS62025
SaragosaTEXAS62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.