BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Burrowing Owl In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Burrowing Owl in Badlands and Prairies has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+59%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Burrowing Owl has risen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Burrowing Owl In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.02–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.02–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.010.77
20260.390.010.77
20270.390.010.77
20280.400.020.78
20290.400.020.78

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Burrowing Owl in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MaurineSOUTH-DAKOTA62024
Pine TreeWYOMING61981
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA52014
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA42024
ShawmutMONTANA32023
WebsterMONTANA31980
LarkNORTH-DAKOTA31980
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA32007
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA32023
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA32023
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA32024
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA32024
Flatwillow 2MONTANA22022
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA22024
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA21978
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA22013
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA22018
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
HayesSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
Railroad ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA22022
SussexWYOMING22024
NewcastleWYOMING22024
ShawneeWYOMING22022
KayceeWYOMING22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.