BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Burrowing Owl In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Burrowing Owl in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-81%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Burrowing Owl has collapsed in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Burrowing Owl In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Burrowing Owl in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.27
20260.050.000.26
20270.040.000.26
20280.040.000.26
20290.040.000.25

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Burrowing Owl in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SanosteeNEW-MEXICO42024
OraibiARIZONA32000
Castle ButteARIZONA32006
QuemadoNEW-MEXICO31996
FayetteUTAH32000
Gilson ButteUTAH32003
Gilson Butte 2UTAH32017
WestwaterUTAH32024
Arches NpUTAH32006
Navajo TrailARIZONA22023
MoffatCOLORADO22018
DoloresCOLORADO21982
BlancaCOLORADO21986
Wilson CreekCOLORADO22023
San LuisCOLORADO22005
AntonitoCOLORADO21998
Horse SpgsNEW-MEXICO22023
Salt Lake 2NEW-MEXICO22023
AnethUTAH22008
Cane Spr DesUTAH21997
House RockARIZONA11984
Rose WellsARIZONA11973
ToroweapARIZONA11998
Many FarmsARIZONA12005
GreasewoodARIZONA11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.