BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 2002.

+81%Since 2002TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bullock's Oriole has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 2002.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.02–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.02–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.010.35
20260.180.010.35
20270.180.020.35
20280.190.020.36
20290.190.020.36

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS82024
Loyola BeachTEXAS52009
IndianolaTEXAS21979
Lag AtascosaTEXAS12017
San PedroTEXAS12023
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.