BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+85%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bullock's Oriole has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.85Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.910.002.0
20260.890.002.0
20270.880.002.0
20280.870.002.0
20290.850.002.0

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SahuaritaARIZONA92024
PomereneARIZONA62022
MaineARIZONA41997
Skull ValleyARIZONA42024
RedingtonARIZONA42023
Sunizona 2ARIZONA42019
San SimonARIZONA22024
Bartlett ResARIZONA22017
AmadoARIZONA22016
Clay SpringARIZONA22024
Carr MtnARIZONA22011
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22016
PrescottARIZONA12009
Peña BlancaARIZONA12022
PatagoniaARIZONA12022
SunizonaARIZONA11997
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA12008
Forest LakesARIZONA12002
PinetopARIZONA12021
CutterARIZONA12014
McnealARIZONA12024
SprucedaleARIZONA12007
PortalARIZONA12024
DragoonARIZONA12005
RuckerARIZONA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.