BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bullock's Oriole In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsForest birds

Bullock's Oriole in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-33%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bullock's Oriole in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Bullock's Oriole In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.07–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.07–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.750.111.4
20270.740.101.4
20280.730.091.4
20290.720.081.4
20300.710.071.4

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cutter 2ARIZONA122018
GlamisCALIFORNIA91995
Ajo 2ARIZONA72019
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA72025
Bates WellARIZONA62023
Casa GrandeARIZONA52021
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA52025
Lone PineCALIFORNIA52025
Palo VerdeARIZONA42013
OnyxCALIFORNIA42015
CimaCALIFORNIA42021
QuartzsiteARIZONA32017
FlorenceARIZONA31973
Cabeza PrietARIZONA32025
WickenburgARIZONA32019
Red Rock 2ARIZONA32024
Eureka ValCALIFORNIA32025
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA32000
WikieupARIZONA22019
VicksburgARIZONA21989
New RiverARIZONA22016
AjoARIZONA22000
Alamo Res.ARIZONA22019
Cactus ForestARIZONA22013
Organ PipeARIZONA22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.