BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+83%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bullock's Oriole has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bullock's Oriole In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 3.0–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 3.0–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.22.95.5
20264.22.95.5
20274.22.95.5
20284.22.95.5
20294.33.05.6

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CactusTEXAS272021
CrowleyCOLORADO242024
PlainsTEXAS192024
LingleWYOMING182024
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO161997
ArsenalCOLORADO162015
Arsenal 2COLORADO152024
CampoCOLORADO142019
NeegrandeCOLORADO142024
Mica ButteCOLORADO121987
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO122023
SedanNEW-MEXICO122024
PantexTEXAS122019
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO112024
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO102022
RankinTEXAS102023
PepNEW-MEXICO92024
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO92021
FeltOKLAHOMA92024
PecosTEXAS92017
KiowaCOLORADO82018
BoyeroCOLORADO82017
TrincheraCOLORADO82022
DaltonNEBRASKA82024
MaljamarNEW-MEXICO81977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.