BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bullock's Oriole In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Bullock's Oriole in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 490% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+490%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bullock's Oriole has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 490% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bullock's Oriole In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.4–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.4–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.91.32.5
20271.91.32.5
20281.91.42.5
20292.01.42.5
20302.01.42.6

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WyarnoWYOMING422025
Reed PointMONTANA182025
St Xavier 2MONTANA162023
BrandenbergMONTANA142025
JordanMONTANA132024
Miles CityMONTANA132025
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA122025
PowdervilleMONTANA102025
DwyerWYOMING92025
SussexWYOMING92025
Thunder BasinWYOMING92025
ArvadaWYOMING72025
RiverviewWYOMING72025
ForsythMONTANA62023
Chuffey SpringMONTANA62025
DaytonWYOMING62025
MeadowdaleWYOMING62025
St XavierMONTANA52010
RavenWYOMING52025
BrusettMONTANA42024
IngomarMONTANA32024
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA32015
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA31990
SundanceWYOMING32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.