BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bullock's Oriole In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Bullock's Oriole in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 461% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+461%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bullock's Oriole has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 461% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.4–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.4–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.81.32.4
20261.91.32.4
20271.91.32.4
20281.91.32.5
20291.91.42.5

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WyarnoWYOMING412024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA192024
ArvadaWYOMING172024
St Xavier 2MONTANA162023
JordanMONTANA132024
BrandenbergMONTANA102019
Reed PointMONTANA72024
ForsythMONTANA62023
Miles CityMONTANA62024
SussexWYOMING62024
HighwoodMONTANA52024
St XavierMONTANA52010
PowdervilleMONTANA52024
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA52024
BrusettMONTANA42024
Custer 2MONTANA42024
IngomarMONTANA32024
Wheat BasinMONTANA32024
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA32015
MaurineSOUTH-DAKOTA32002
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA31990
SundanceWYOMING32024
DaytonWYOMING32024
SeelyWYOMING32000
MayoworthWYOMING32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.