BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bullock's Oriole In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Bullock's Oriole in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+111%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
151Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bullock's Oriole has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Bullock's Oriole In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.10–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.99Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bullock's Oriole in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.10–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.131.9
20271.00.121.9
20281.00.111.9
20291.000.111.9
20300.990.101.9

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Bullock's Oriole in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DoloresCOLORADO261987
WalsenburgCOLORADO202025
KamasUTAH202025
CortezCOLORADO172008
Wellington 3UTAH172025
FalfaCOLORADO142025
Douglas PassCOLORADO122024
Cortez 2COLORADO122017
AztecNEW-MEXICO111989
YampaCOLORADO102023
CokedaleCOLORADO92025
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH92025
La PlataNEW-MEXICO82013
HarmonyCOLORADO72025
AspenCOLORADO72025
FruitaCOLORADO72007
De BequeCOLORADO72024
Animas 2COLORADO72025
PaoniaCOLORADO62025
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO62025
MoabUTAH62025
LudlowCOLORADO52025
Ojo SarcoNEW-MEXICO52025
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO52016
CastletonUTAH51985

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.