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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Buff-bellied Hummingbird Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Buff-bellied Hummingbird in Texas has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-17%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Buff-bellied Hummingbird Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Buff-bellied Hummingbird in Texas. See the full index history below.

Buff-bellied Hummingbird Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Buff-bellied Hummingbird in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±237.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±237.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Buff-bellied Hummingbird in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±237.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19882028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.08
20250.010.000.08
20260.010.000.08
20270.010.000.08
20280.010.000.08

Buff-bellied Hummingbird Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Buff-bellied Hummingbird in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lag Atascosa220231994
San Pedro220181996
Rachal120091992
Agua Nueva120092009
Raymondville120091988
Burton119991999
Randado119911991
Progreso120052005
Loyola Beach120092003
Loyola Beach 2120122010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.