BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-headed Nuthatch In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Brown-headed Nuthatch in Piedmont has surged: up 174% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+174%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown-headed Nuthatch has surged in Piedmont: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown-headed Nuthatch In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.3 (95% range 1.4–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.3 (95% range 1.4–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.33.1
20272.21.33.1
20282.21.33.1
20292.21.33.1
20302.31.43.1

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Brown-headed Nuthatch in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Little MtnSOUTH-CAROLINA191988
Stoney PointGEORGIA182007
Kite LakeGEORGIA172025
HiramGEORGIA152018
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA142025
Liberty City 2ALABAMA112025
WhitesburgGEORGIA112025
BiscoeNORTH-CAROLINA112025
Salem XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA112019
GrovetownGEORGIA102021
Piedmont NwrGEORGIA102003
WilgroveNORTH-CAROLINA102024
Hollonville 2GEORGIA92022
Yates CrossroadsGEORGIA92025
WoodstockGEORGIA92021
RidgewaySOUTH-CAROLINA92025
GreenwoodSOUTH-CAROLINA92025
HollonvilleGEORGIA82003
JordanNORTH-CAROLINA82025
OstwaltNORTH-CAROLINA82025
WhitmireSOUTH-CAROLINA82024
Carrs StationGEORGIA72025
GuptonNORTH-CAROLINA72025
BowdonGEORGIA62025
CampobelloSOUTH-CAROLINA62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.