BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-headed Nuthatch In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Brown-headed Nuthatch in Piedmont has surged: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+154%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown-headed Nuthatch has surged in Piedmont: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown-headed Nuthatch In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Piedmont is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.3–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Piedmont is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.3–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.33.0
20262.21.33.1
20272.21.33.1
20282.21.33.1
20292.21.33.1

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Brown-headed Nuthatch in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Little MtnSOUTH-CAROLINA191988
Stoney PointGEORGIA182007
Plum BranchSOUTH-CAROLINA162024
HiramGEORGIA152018
StockbridgeGEORGIA152023
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA142024
Kite LakeGEORGIA122023
JulietteGEORGIA112024
Salem XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA112019
GrovetownGEORGIA102021
Piedmont NwrGEORGIA102003
WilgroveNORTH-CAROLINA102024
Hollonville 2GEORGIA92022
Carrs StationGEORGIA92024
WoodstockGEORGIA92021
HollonvilleGEORGIA82003
WhitmireSOUTH-CAROLINA82024
BowdonGEORGIA72024
EdenNORTH-CAROLINA62024
CampobelloSOUTH-CAROLINA62024
Stoney Point 2GEORGIA52024
MooresvilleNORTH-CAROLINA51999
ProsperitySOUTH-CAROLINA52024
Liberty CityALABAMA42011
Liberty City 2ALABAMA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.