BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-headed Nuthatch In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Brown-headed Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Brown-headed Nuthatch In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.24 (95% range 0.12–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.24 (95% range 0.12–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.120.35
20260.230.120.35
20270.240.120.35
20280.240.120.35
20290.240.120.35

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Brown-headed Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Smyer LakeALABAMA102024
TradeALABAMA82019
Mt OliveALABAMA62024
TalladegaALABAMA62024
DrummondALABAMA62024
CartersvilleGEORGIA62024
Pleasant HillGEORGIA62024
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA52024
BattlecreekSOUTH-CAROLINA52022
DearmanvilleALABAMA41983
StevensonALABAMA42011
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA42021
Pine GroveALABAMA32024
LakeviewALABAMA32024
LinwoodGEORGIA32023
SummittALABAMA21981
DawsonALABAMA21987
Sunny EveALABAMA22023
ChildersburgALABAMA21998
Borden SprngALABAMA21998
KymulgaALABAMA22024
RiversideALABAMA22011
ShannonGEORGIA22019
LandrumSOUTH-CAROLINA21988
Jones GapTENNESSEE22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.