BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-headed Nuthatch In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Brown-headed Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Brown-headed Nuthatch In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 0.17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.12–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 0.17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.12–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.230.120.35
20270.230.120.35
20280.230.120.35
20290.240.120.35
20300.240.120.35

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Brown-headed Nuthatch in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Smyer LakeALABAMA102024
TradeALABAMA82019
DrummondALABAMA62024
Pleasant HillGEORGIA62024
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA52024
DearmanvilleALABAMA41983
GreensportALABAMA42025
OdenvilleALABAMA42025
KymulgaALABAMA42025
StevensonALABAMA42011
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA42021
Pine GroveALABAMA32025
Sunny EveALABAMA32025
Mt OliveALABAMA32025
MaytownALABAMA32025
LakeviewALABAMA32025
CartersvilleGEORGIA32025
LinwoodGEORGIA32023
BattlecreekSOUTH-CAROLINA32025
SummittALABAMA21981
DawsonALABAMA21987
ChildersburgALABAMA21998
Borden SprngALABAMA21998
TalladegaALABAMA22025
RiversideALABAMA22011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.