BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-headed Nuthatch In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Brown-headed Nuthatch in Southeastern Coastal Plain has risen sharply: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
302Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown-headed Nuthatch has risen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown-headed Nuthatch In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.8 (95% range 2.2–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.8 (95% range 2.2–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.82.23.4
20272.82.23.4
20282.82.23.4
20292.82.23.5
20302.82.23.5

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Brown-headed Nuthatch in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South. PinesNORTH-CAROLINA301996
Broad CreekNORTH-CAROLINA272025
ApalachicolaFLORIDA262025
OsceolaFLORIDA202025
OlusteeFLORIDA202025
Mount PisgahSOUTH-CAROLINA172025
Lake MaryMISSISSIPPI151990
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA152025
CowardSOUTH-CAROLINA152025
Alligator PtFLORIDA142025
Sheep RidgeNORTH-CAROLINA142025
Green SwampNORTH-CAROLINA142006
WeberGEORGIA122025
Latimer 2MISSISSIPPI122023
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA121991
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA122025
RaefordNORTH-CAROLINA122025
WallsboroALABAMA112025
Ft GadsdenFLORIDA112025
St Vincent IFLORIDA112025
LacombeLOUISIANA111983
BranchvilleVIRGINIA112024
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA102025
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA102025
Cypress CrNORTH-CAROLINA102022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.