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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-headed Nuthatch In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Brown-headed Nuthatch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-14%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Nuthatch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Brown-headed Nuthatch In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.88 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.05–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Nuthatch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.88 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.05–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.770.091.4
20260.760.081.4
20270.750.071.4
20280.740.061.4
20290.730.051.4

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Brown-headed Nuthatch in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Four LakesARKANSAS102001
ManyLOUISIANA91992
HargisLOUISIANA72011
Old MiloARKANSAS62014
RamseyARKANSAS61995
CartervilleLOUISIANA61992
New WaverlyTEXAS62024
Powell ParkTEXAS62021
Fishville 2LOUISIANA52024
Burr FerryLOUISIANA52024
Coal HillARKANSAS42023
PrincetonARKANSAS42014
DerryLOUISIANA41989
Fort PolkLOUISIANA41975
ClayLOUISIANA42024
Derry 2LOUISIANA42024
IvanLOUISIANA42013
EvelynLOUISIANA42024
Hargis 2LOUISIANA42014
Lake CoveLOUISIANA42017
Town BluffTEXAS42010
Mt. SelmanTEXAS42021
BlakelyARKANSAS31996
SimsARKANSAS32019
De RidderLOUISIANA32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.