BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-headed Cowbird In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Brown-headed Cowbird in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
401Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Cowbird in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Brown-headed Cowbird In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.9–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.9–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.22.36.2
20274.12.26.1
20284.02.16.0
20293.92.05.9
20303.81.95.8

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Brown-headed Cowbird in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY481997
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY471995
DurhamNEW-YORK431976
StevensonALABAMA382024
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA382021
LovellTENNESSEE372019
Big FlatPENNSYLVANIA341981
WilliamsportMARYLAND332025
Corryton RdTENNESSEE332019
HendersonWEST-VIRGINIA302023
NewcomerstwnOHIO291995
Big MeadowsVIRGINIA232025
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA222025
QuakertownPENNSYLVANIA221989
StonecreekOHIO202025
Mt OliveALABAMA192025
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA192025
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA192025
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA192025
HebronVIRGINIA192022
CedarvilleWEST-VIRGINIA192023
SmithsburgMARYLAND182014
DresdenOHIO182025
HopeNEW-JERSEY171994
BeaverPENNSYLVANIA172025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.