BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-headed Cowbird In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Brown-headed Cowbird in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
400Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Cowbird in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Brown-headed Cowbird In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 1.9–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 1.9–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.32.36.2
20264.22.26.1
20274.12.16.0
20284.02.05.9
20293.91.95.8

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Brown-headed Cowbird in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY481997
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY471995
DurhamNEW-YORK431976
StevensonALABAMA382024
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA382021
StonecreekOHIO372024
LovellTENNESSEE372019
Big FlatPENNSYLVANIA341981
Corryton RdTENNESSEE332019
HendersonWEST-VIRGINIA302023
NewcomerstwnOHIO291995
DresdenOHIO282024
SpencerWEST-VIRGINIA282023
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA252024
QuakertownPENNSYLVANIA221989
Front RoyalVIRGINIA222024
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA192021
WilliamsportMARYLAND192024
BeaverPENNSYLVANIA192024
HebronVIRGINIA192022
CedarvilleWEST-VIRGINIA192023
SmithsburgMARYLAND182014
Mill RunPENNSYLVANIA182024
HopeNEW-JERSEY171994
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA172009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.