BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-headed Cowbird In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Brown-headed Cowbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Cowbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Brown-headed Cowbird In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 23 (95% range 16–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 23 (95% range 16–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026221629
2027231630
2028231630
2029231630
2030231630

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Brown-headed Cowbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RamahLOUISIANA1532025
HaytiMISSOURI572021
South BendARKANSAS552025
DundeeMISSISSIPPI542022
CarlisleLOUISIANA481988
SaffellARKANSAS412019
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA412025
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI412011
DeventerMISSOURI402025
ShawLOUISIANA352024
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI342025
FrogmoreLOUISIANA332025
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA302025
Port AllenLOUISIANA302024
KraemerLOUISIANA272025
Rayville 2LOUISIANA242025
River RoadLOUISIANA242025
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI242025
EnglandARKANSAS232025
GillettARKANSAS232025
Morgan CityLOUISIANA232022
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI202021
MaynardARKANSAS192025
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS192025
KeystoneLOUISIANA182013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.