BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-headed Cowbird In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Brown-headed Cowbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+42%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Cowbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Brown-headed Cowbird In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 23 (95% range 16–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 23 (95% range 16–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025221529
2026231630
2027231630
2028231630
2029231630

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Brown-headed Cowbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RamahLOUISIANA892024
DeventerMISSOURI572024
HaytiMISSOURI572021
DundeeMISSISSIPPI542022
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI522024
CarlisleLOUISIANA481988
South BendARKANSAS452023
SaffellARKANSAS412019
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI412011
ShawLOUISIANA352024
BlodgettMISSOURI342024
Port AllenLOUISIANA302024
WilsonARKANSAS292024
MaynardARKANSAS282024
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS282024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA272024
HughesARKANSAS262023
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY262024
Baton RougeLOUISIANA242024
Morgan CityLOUISIANA232022
River RoadLOUISIANA212024
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA212024
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI212024
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI202021
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI202024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.