BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-headed Cowbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Brown-headed Cowbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-54%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown-headed Cowbird has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Brown-headed Cowbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 7.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.00–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 7.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.00–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.20.579.8
20264.90.329.5
20274.70.079.3
20284.40.009.0
20294.20.008.8

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Brown-headed Cowbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MatoyOKLAHOMA462000
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA402021
PocolaOKLAHOMA352016
Coal HillARKANSAS292023
HargisLOUISIANA232011
ChandlerTEXAS232004
LongstreetLOUISIANA202024
DerryLOUISIANA191989
Ivan 2LOUISIANA192016
EvelynLOUISIANA192024
Lake CoveLOUISIANA192018
LockesburgARKANSAS182019
CanadianOKLAHOMA182017
IvanLOUISIANA172013
PhillipsOKLAHOMA172008
DibollTEXAS172024
Liberty HillTEXAS172023
SmyrnaTEXAS162010
StarkARKANSAS152024
EnterpriseLOUISIANA152024
SandbluffOKLAHOMA151995
FillmoreLOUISIANA141989
HopeARKANSAS132024
TroutLOUISIANA132024
IndianolaOKLAHOMA132024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.