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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-headed Cowbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Brown-headed Cowbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-45%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Cowbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Brown-headed Cowbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 0.00–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 0.00–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.30.5510
20275.10.309.8
20284.80.069.6
20294.60.009.3
20304.30.009.1

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Brown-headed Cowbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PhillipsOKLAHOMA482025
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA402021
PocolaOKLAHOMA352016
SandbluffOKLAHOMA332025
Coal HillARKANSAS292023
HargisLOUISIANA232011
ChandlerTEXAS232004
Easton 2TEXAS212025
StarkARKANSAS202025
TroutLOUISIANA202025
MatoyOKLAHOMA202025
DerryLOUISIANA191989
EvelynLOUISIANA192024
Lake CoveLOUISIANA192018
MortonTEXAS192025
LockesburgARKANSAS182019
CanadianOKLAHOMA182017
IndianolaOKLAHOMA182025
IvanLOUISIANA172013
AthensTEXAS172025
Liberty HillTEXAS162025
SmyrnaTEXAS162010
Mount UnionLOUISIANA152025
Fishville 2LOUISIANA152025
Ivan 2LOUISIANA152025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.