BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-headed Cowbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Brown-headed Cowbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968
86Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Cowbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 8.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 4.5–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029
7.2Projected 2029 index
4.5–9.995% range
±15.6%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20257.64.910
20267.54.810
20277.44.710
20287.34.610
20297.24.59.9

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Brown-headed Cowbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK442024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK382024
CayugaNEW-YORK332024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK251995
West BangorNEW-YORK201998
Valley CityOHIO202024
PenfieldNEW-YORK192024
MacdougallNEW-YORK172024
NashvilleNEW-YORK162018
West SenecaNEW-YORK152004
MaysvilleOHIO152012
New SomersetOHIO151993
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA152023
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA142023
PittsfieldOHIO132024
RomulusNEW-YORK122000
CastileNEW-YORK122024
N VictoryNEW-YORK121972
LucerneOHIO122024
CatskillsNEW-YORK112015
HamburgNEW-YORK112024
E YoungstownNEW-YORK112023
NaplesNEW-YORK112024
GarrettsvileOHIO111991
LenoxOHIO112024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.