BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-crested Flycatcher In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Brown-crested Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

17×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown-crested Flycatcher has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Brown-crested Flycatcher In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 196% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 1.9–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+196%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 196% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 1.9–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.31.74.9
20263.31.74.9
20273.41.85.0
20283.51.95.1
20293.51.95.1

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Brown-crested Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San PedroTEXAS422023
McfaddinTEXAS412016
Goliad PrairieTEXAS232016
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS222023
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS162024
Loyola BeachTEXAS72009
Lag AtascosaTEXAS62024
Bayside 2TEXAS42001
BaysideTEXAS22003
Bayside 3TEXAS22024
PetronilaTEXAS12023
IndianolaTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.