BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-crested Flycatcher In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Brown-crested Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

17×Since 1971
12Routes In Region
44Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Brown-crested Flycatcher has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 196% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 1.9–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+196%Change by 2029
3.5Projected 2029 index
1.9–5.195% range
±95.2%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.31.74.9
20263.31.74.9
20273.41.85.0
20283.51.95.1
20293.51.95.1

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Brown-crested Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
San PedroTEXAS422023
McfaddinTEXAS412016
Goliad PrairieTEXAS232016
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS222023
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS162024
Loyola BeachTEXAS72009
Lag AtascosaTEXAS62024
Bayside 2TEXAS42001
BaysideTEXAS22003
Bayside 3TEXAS22024
PetronilaTEXAS12023
IndianolaTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.