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Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-crested Flycatcher In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Brown-crested Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+23%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-crested Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Brown-crested Flycatcher In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.4 (95% range 0.67–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.67–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.4 (95% range 0.67–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.50.7918
20269.50.7618
20279.40.7318
20289.40.7018
20299.40.6718

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Brown-crested Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RachalTEXAS622023
Agua NuevaTEXAS392023
GuerraTEXAS332023
ZapataTEXAS201987
SejitaTEXAS202024
RaymondvilleTEXAS172024
Millett 2TEXAS172024
KingsvilleTEXAS152024
Catarina 2TEXAS152017
EncinalTEXAS142010
El SauzTEXAS142023
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS132023
George WestTEXAS92024
HondoTEXAS92023
Encinal 2TEXAS92024
LaredoTEXAS92023
DilleyTEXAS82024
MillettTEXAS82012
Mirando CityTEXAS72024
Catarina 3TEXAS52024
RandadoTEXAS42024
ProgresoTEXAS42006
Pedro CreekTEXAS42010
HeidelbergTEXAS42024
San YgnacioTEXAS31985

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.