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Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-crested Flycatcher In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Brown-crested Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+21%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-crested Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Brown-crested Flycatcher In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.5 (95% range 0.89–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.89–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.5 (95% range 0.89–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.61.0018
20279.60.9718
20289.60.9418
20299.60.9218
20309.50.8918

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Brown-crested Flycatcher in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Agua NuevaTEXAS392023
GuerraTEXAS212025
ZapataTEXAS201987
SejitaTEXAS202024
Encinal 2TEXAS182025
Mirando CityTEXAS172025
Millett 2TEXAS172024
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS172025
KingsvilleTEXAS152024
Catarina 2TEXAS152017
EncinalTEXAS142010
El SauzTEXAS142023
RaymondvilleTEXAS122025
George WestTEXAS112025
HondoTEXAS112025
RandadoTEXAS102025
LaredoTEXAS92023
Catarina 3TEXAS82025
MillettTEXAS82012
DilleyTEXAS52025
ProgresoTEXAS42006
Pedro CreekTEXAS42010
HeidelbergTEXAS42024
RachalTEXAS32025
San YgnacioTEXAS31985

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.