BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-crested Flycatcher In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Brown-crested Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert has risen sharply: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+64%Since 1986
8Routes In Region
30Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Brown-crested Flycatcher has risen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029
0.14Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.3095% range
±94.6%Backtest error
19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.130.000.30
20260.130.000.30
20270.130.000.30
20280.140.000.30
20290.140.000.30

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Brown-crested Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert.
Red RockNEW-MEXICO42024
AltudaTEXAS21986
CornudasTEXAS11985
OzonaTEXAS11998
CastolonTEXAS12006
Devils R CynTEXAS12016
ToyahvaleTEXAS11998
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.