BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-crested Flycatcher In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Brown-crested Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 492% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+492%Since 1971
18Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Brown-crested Flycatcher has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 492% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 6.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029
8.9Projected 2029 index
6.0–1295% range
±46.5%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20258.45.411
20268.65.612
20278.75.712
20288.85.812
20298.96.012

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Brown-crested Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental.
RedingtonARIZONA472023
PatagoniaARIZONA272024
Carr MtnARIZONA272024
Bartlett ResARIZONA212024
PortalARIZONA202024
PomereneARIZONA192024
SahuaritaARIZONA62024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA62024
AmadoARIZONA52023
Peña BlancaARIZONA42024
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO31995
PrescottARIZONA11979
Aztec PeakARIZONA11977
San SimonARIZONA12010
SunizonaARIZONA11980
Skull ValleyARIZONA12024
McnealARIZONA12005
RuckerARIZONA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.