BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-crested Flycatcher In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Brown-crested Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 524% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+524%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown-crested Flycatcher has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 524% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Brown-crested Flycatcher In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 6.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 6.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.0–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 6.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 6.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.45.511
20278.65.612
20288.75.712
20298.85.812
20308.96.012

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Brown-crested Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RedingtonARIZONA432025
PatagoniaARIZONA332025
PomereneARIZONA282025
Carr MtnARIZONA272025
PortalARIZONA192025
Bartlett ResARIZONA132025
AmadoARIZONA92025
SahuaritaARIZONA92025
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO31995
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA22025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA22025
PrescottARIZONA11979
Aztec PeakARIZONA11977
San SimonARIZONA12010
Peña BlancaARIZONA12025
SunizonaARIZONA11980
Skull ValleyARIZONA12024
McnealARIZONA12005
RuckerARIZONA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.