BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-crested Flycatcher In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Brown-crested Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 203% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+203%Since 1970
33Routes In Region
51Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Brown-crested Flycatcher has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 203% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 241% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.74–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+241%Change by 2029
3.0Projected 2029 index
0.74–5.295% range
±60.3%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.80.565.0
20262.80.605.0
20272.90.655.1
20282.90.695.1
20293.00.745.2

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Brown-crested Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Organ PipeARIZONA612023
Bates WellARIZONA372023
Ajo 2ARIZONA192022
Casa GrandeARIZONA152022
LukevilleARIZONA141981
Cabeza PrietARIZONA122024
Red Rock 2ARIZONA102024
Cutter 2ARIZONA82018
FlorenceARIZONA61988
WickenburgARIZONA62022
Red RockARIZONA42014
WikieupARIZONA32018
VicksburgARIZONA31972
LagunaARIZONA31985
Alamo Res.ARIZONA32023
OatmanARIZONA22017
QuartzsiteARIZONA22015
New RiverARIZONA22016
AjoARIZONA22008
RivieraARIZONA22024
Palo VerdeARIZONA22004
Cactus ForestARIZONA22019
Hope 2ARIZONA22019
TecopaCALIFORNIA22023
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA22000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.