BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-crested Flycatcher In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Brown-crested Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 126% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+126%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown-crested Flycatcher has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 126% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Brown-crested Flycatcher In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 877% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.50–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±231.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+877%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.50–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±231.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-crested Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 877% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.50–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±231.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.60.344.9
20272.70.385.0
20282.70.425.0
20292.80.465.1
20302.80.505.1

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Brown-crested Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Organ PipeARIZONA612023
Bates WellARIZONA372023
Ajo 2ARIZONA192022
Casa GrandeARIZONA152022
LukevilleARIZONA141981
Red Rock 2ARIZONA102024
Cutter 2ARIZONA82018
Cabeza PrietARIZONA72025
FlorenceARIZONA61988
WickenburgARIZONA62022
Red RockARIZONA42014
WikieupARIZONA32018
VicksburgARIZONA31972
LagunaARIZONA31985
Alamo Res.ARIZONA32023
OatmanARIZONA22017
QuartzsiteARIZONA22015
New RiverARIZONA22016
AjoARIZONA22008
Palo VerdeARIZONA22004
Cactus ForestARIZONA22019
Hope 2ARIZONA22019
TecopaCALIFORNIA22023
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA22000
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA21985

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.