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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Creeper In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Forest birds

Brown Creeper in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-67%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Brown Creeper In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.23
20260.050.000.23
20270.050.000.23
20280.050.000.22
20290.040.000.22

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Brown Creeper in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Swan Lake RdALASKA42023
KalifonskyALASKA22018
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA22022
CircleALASKA11993
Skilak LakeALASKA11977
WillowALASKA12024
Hatcher PassALASKA12003
Anchor RiverALASKA11997
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA12019
CohoeALASKA12016
PetersvilleALASKA12019
Seven LakesALASKA12019
KachemakALASKA11997
Burma RoadALASKA12024
Donelly DomeALASKA12022
DeltaALASKA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.