BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Creeper In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Brown Creeper in Sierra Madre Occidental has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+13%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Creeper in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Brown Creeper In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.600.001.2
20270.600.001.2
20280.600.001.2
20290.600.001.2
20300.600.001.2

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. GrahamARIZONA112025
Mormon LakeARIZONA41968
PortalARIZONA42025
SunizonaARIZONA31991
AlpineARIZONA32025
WilliamsARIZONA22013
MaineARIZONA22003
Forest LakesARIZONA22024
PinetopARIZONA22018
Happy JackARIZONA22017
Carr MtnARIZONA22018
FlagstaffARIZONA12025
PrescottARIZONA12022
BlueARIZONA11987
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA12019
SprucedaleARIZONA12021
RuckerARIZONA12007
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12023
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.