BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Creeper In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Brown Creeper in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

15×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown Creeper In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.16–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.16–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.150.30
20260.230.150.30
20270.230.150.30
20280.230.160.30
20290.230.160.31

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
McdonoughNEW-YORK62017
Glade Run 2WEST-VIRGINIA52024
CherokeeNORTH-CAROLINA42024
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA42021
AnsoniaPENNSYLVANIA42024
SusquehannaPENNSYLVANIA32024
Newfound GapTENNESSEE32024
Cades CoveTENNESSEE32023
DenmarWEST-VIRGINIA32024
Green BankWEST-VIRGINIA32024
BemisWEST-VIRGINIA32024
JenningsMARYLAND22024
DurhamNEW-YORK21970
Platte CoveNEW-YORK22018
CorbettsvileNEW-YORK22024
CattaraugusNEW-YORK22019
Oxford 2NEW-YORK22024
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA22024
KyleNORTH-CAROLINA22024
LynchPENNSYLVANIA22024
OdinPENNSYLVANIA22024
EldredPENNSYLVANIA22022
LoguePENNSYLVANIA22008
RosecransPENNSYLVANIA21980
Cherry SprsPENNSYLVANIA22010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.