BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Creeper In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Brown Creeper in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

18×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
140Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown Creeper in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Brown Creeper In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.17–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.17–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.230.150.31
20270.230.160.31
20280.240.160.32
20290.240.160.32
20300.240.170.32

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
McdonoughNEW-YORK62017
Green BankWEST-VIRGINIA62025
GladyWEST-VIRGINIA62025
OdinPENNSYLVANIA52025
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA42021
AnsoniaPENNSYLVANIA42025
BemisWEST-VIRGINIA42025
Glade Run 2WEST-VIRGINIA42025
CherokeeNORTH-CAROLINA32025
LoguePENNSYLVANIA32025
CanadensisPENNSYLVANIA32025
Roulette 2PENNSYLVANIA32025
Ltl Pine CrPENNSYLVANIA32025
DenmarWEST-VIRGINIA32024
JenningsMARYLAND22024
DurhamNEW-YORK21970
Platte CoveNEW-YORK22018
DrydenNEW-YORK22025
CattaraugusNEW-YORK22019
Oxford 2NEW-YORK22024
KyleNORTH-CAROLINA22024
Russell CityPENNSYLVANIA22025
EldredPENNSYLVANIA22022
RosecransPENNSYLVANIA21980
Cherry SprsPENNSYLVANIA22010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.