BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Creeper In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Brown Creeper in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+197%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Brown Creeper In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.03–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.03–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.030.19
20260.110.030.19
20270.110.030.19
20280.110.030.19
20290.110.030.19

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO71978
TsaileARIZONA52023
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO52024
Wasatch NfUTAH42019
Pinos CreekCOLORADO31989
PowderhornCOLORADO32014
Owl Creek PassCOLORADO32015
SawmillARIZONA22005
AspenCOLORADO22023
ParlinCOLORADO22018
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO21976
UncompahgreCOLORADO22014
RosevaleCOLORADO22017
PinonCOLORADO22015
CebollaNEW-MEXICO22005
Angel FireNEW-MEXICO22000
VallecitosNEW-MEXICO22024
GallinasNEW-MEXICO22017
AltonUTAH22001
La Sal 3UTAH22024
Dry ParkARIZONA12023
Cheesman LkCOLORADO12015
DeltaCOLORADO12014
DoloresCOLORADO11984
FalfaCOLORADO11974

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.