BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Creeper In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Brown Creeper in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 497% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+497%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
137Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 497% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown Creeper In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.69–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.69–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.69–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.641.5
20271.10.651.5
20281.10.661.5
20291.10.681.5
20301.10.691.5

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MarlboroVERMONT102025
WanakenaNEW-YORK72025
FranconiaNEW-HAMPSHIRE62025
HighmarketNEW-YORK62025
StrattonVERMONT62025
Pillsbury PdMAINE51968
DegrasseNEW-YORK52025
GabrielsNEW-YORK52025
GaysvilleVERMONT52025
Turner 2MAINE42025
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE42024
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE42025
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE42025
Old ForgeNEW-YORK42006
Northfld FlsVERMONT42025
FletcherVERMONT42025
ReedsMAINE32025
MedwayMAINE32025
Big TwentyMAINE32007
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS32025
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS32025
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE32025
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE32025
Gilmantn I WNEW-HAMPSHIRE32024
LempsterNEW-HAMPSHIRE32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.