BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Creeper In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Brown Creeper in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 381% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+381%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
137Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 381% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown Creeper In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.69–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.69–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.69–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.970.651.3
20260.980.661.3
20270.990.671.3
20281.00.681.3
20291.00.691.3

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS72024
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE62024
GabrielsNEW-YORK62024
MarlboroVERMONT62024
Pillsbury PdMAINE51968
Brownfield 2MAINE52024
MiddlesexVERMONT52024
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE42024
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE42024
Old ForgeNEW-YORK42006
East CalaisVERMONT42022
Big TwentyMAINE32007
Gilmantn I WNEW-HAMPSHIRE32024
LempsterNEW-HAMPSHIRE32024
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE32024
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK32010
StrattonVERMONT32024
LandgroveVERMONT32023
Newbury 2VERMONT32023
Wilson MillsMAINE22018
East TroyMAINE22018
HarmonyMAINE22022
EastbrookMAINE22023
AuroraMAINE22021
Carrying PlMAINE22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.