BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Creeper In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Brown Creeper in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 348% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+348%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 348% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Brown Creeper In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.02–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±224.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±224.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.02–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±224.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.020.24
20260.130.020.24
20270.130.020.24
20280.130.020.24
20290.130.020.24

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
W ShokanNEW-YORK42018
Grand IsleVERMONT41985
PulaskiNEW-YORK32024
CatskillsNEW-YORK22010
MendonNEW-YORK22004
N Victory 2NEW-YORK22010
WillsboroNEW-YORK22024
BalmatNEW-YORK21997
CrescentNEW-YORK22000
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12018
HighlandNEW-YORK12009
AusterlitzNEW-YORK12024
GhentNEW-YORK11990
DuanesburgNEW-YORK12009
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK12024
CayugaNEW-YORK11973
TrumansburgNEW-YORK12007
OrleansNEW-YORK11972
BranchportNEW-YORK12004
Canadice LNEW-YORK12021
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK11998
HamburgNEW-YORK12010
RandolphNEW-YORK12003
SheridanNEW-YORK11988
Cherry HillNEW-YORK11976

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.