BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown Creeper In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Brown Creeper in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 418% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+418%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 418% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Brown Creeper In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.67 (95% range 0.46–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.67Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.46–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.67 (95% range 0.46–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.630.420.84
20260.640.430.85
20270.650.440.86
20280.660.450.88
20290.670.460.89

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarriettaMICHIGAN52024
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA52024
Land O' Lakes 2WISCONSIN52024
MareniscoMICHIGAN42019
Imp LakeMICHIGAN42019
EnsignMICHIGAN42009
BlackduckMINNESOTA42022
ChisholmMINNESOTA42024
Land O LakesWISCONSIN42016
GooseneckMICHIGAN32010
Nett LakeMINNESOTA32016
BerglandMICHIGAN22022
HermanMICHIGAN22015
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN22022
IshpemingMICHIGAN22019
GilchristMICHIGAN22017
SkeelsMICHIGAN21992
Isabella 2MICHIGAN22024
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN22023
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN22024
Hiawatha NfMICHIGAN22024
Seney NwrMICHIGAN22019
SidnawMICHIGAN22023
Big Island LakeMICHIGAN22010
CromwellMINNESOTA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.