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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown Creeper In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Brown Creeper in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 511% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+511%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Brown Creeper has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 511% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Brown Creeper In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.48–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.48–0.9195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown Creeper in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.48–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.660.440.87
20270.670.450.88
20280.680.460.89
20290.690.470.90
20300.700.480.91

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Brown Creeper in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarriettaMICHIGAN72025
Land O' Lakes 2WISCONSIN72025
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA62025
MareniscoMICHIGAN42019
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN42025
Imp LakeMICHIGAN42019
Hiawatha NfMICHIGAN42025
EnsignMICHIGAN42009
BlackduckMINNESOTA42022
Red LakeMINNESOTA42025
ChisholmMINNESOTA42024
Land O LakesWISCONSIN42016
Popple RiverWISCONSIN42025
RacoMICHIGAN32025
GooseneckMICHIGAN32010
Nett LakeMINNESOTA32016
BerglandMICHIGAN22022
HermanMICHIGAN22015
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN22022
ShingletonMICHIGAN22025
GilchristMICHIGAN22017
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN22025
SkeelsMICHIGAN21992
Isabella 2MICHIGAN22024
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.