BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+68%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has risen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 35% by 2028 — from 0.17 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.02–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 35% by 2028 — from 0.17 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.02–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19882028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.110.010.20
20250.110.020.20
20260.110.020.20
20270.110.020.20
20280.110.020.20

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Port AcresTEXAS42023
HackberryLOUISIANA12016
GlencoeLOUISIANA12015
EstherLOUISIANA11998
MauriceLOUISIANA12011
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA12007
Vinton 2LOUISIANA12022
WinnieTEXAS12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.