BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has increased: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Broad-winged Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.04–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.04–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.040.21
20260.130.040.21
20270.130.040.21
20280.130.040.21
20290.130.040.21

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS42017
Ware RiverMASSACHUSETTS42022
Broomes IslMARYLAND31981
WoodstockCONNECTICUT22007
No WoodburyCONNECTICUT22009
WarrenCONNECTICUT22008
Long HillCONNECTICUT22018
Warren 2CONNECTICUT22024
MelitotaMARYLAND21979
Severna ParkMARYLAND21982
BerlinMARYLAND21984
MansfieldMASSACHUSETTS22024
HoldenMASSACHUSETTS22023
EpsomNEW-HAMPSHIRE22023
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE22022
AncoraNEW-JERSEY21967
RobbinsvilleNEW-JERSEY21966
PomonaNEW-JERSEY22023
WesthamptonNEW-YORK21968
HauppaugeNEW-YORK21988
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND22023
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND22024
Wallum LakeRHODE-ISLAND22012
WalkersVIRGINIA22006
MysticCONNECTICUT12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.