BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Broad-winged Hawk In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastBirds of prey

Broad-winged Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has risen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Broad-winged Hawk In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.05–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.05–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.050.21
20270.130.050.22
20280.130.050.22
20290.130.050.22
20300.130.050.22

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS42017
Ware RiverMASSACHUSETTS42022
Broomes IslMARYLAND31981
WoodstockCONNECTICUT22007
No WoodburyCONNECTICUT22009
WarrenCONNECTICUT22008
Long HillCONNECTICUT22018
Warren 2CONNECTICUT22025
Kittery PtMAINE22025
MelitotaMARYLAND21979
Severna ParkMARYLAND21982
BerlinMARYLAND21984
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS22025
MansfieldMASSACHUSETTS22024
HoldenMASSACHUSETTS22023
EpsomNEW-HAMPSHIRE22023
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE22025
AncoraNEW-JERSEY21967
RobbinsvilleNEW-JERSEY21966
WesthamptonNEW-YORK21968
HauppaugeNEW-YORK21988
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND22025
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND22024
WalkersVIRGINIA22006
MysticCONNECTICUT12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.