BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in Appalachian Mountains has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+33%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
352Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Broad-winged Hawk in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.28 (95% range 0.20–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.28 (95% range 0.20–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.200.34
20260.270.200.35
20270.270.200.35
20280.280.200.35
20290.280.200.35

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oxford 2NEW-YORK52022
HighlandsNORTH-CAROLINA42023
JasperTENNESSEE42024
Signal MtnTENNESSEE42024
Willis SprngTENNESSEE42023
RichwoodWEST-VIRGINIA42021
Lost RiverWEST-VIRGINIA42021
StevensonALABAMA32024
LinwoodGEORGIA32019
MonticelloKENTUCKY32018
WestbrookvleNEW-YORK31966
N Pine GrovePENNSYLVANIA32024
BattlecreekSOUTH-CAROLINA32017
Oliver SpgsTENNESSEE32018
Jefferson CtyTENNESSEE32004
Cades CoveTENNESSEE32023
Shenandoa NpVIRGINIA32024
BemisWEST-VIRGINIA32008
Mt OliveALABAMA22024
BrooksvilleALABAMA22022
OneontaALABAMA22012
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA22015
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY22015
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY22013
Potomac ParkMARYLAND22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.