BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+78%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
215Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.15 (95% range 0.06–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.15 (95% range 0.06–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.060.23
20260.150.060.23
20270.150.060.23
20280.150.060.23
20290.150.060.23

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrantleyALABAMA32002
Dauphin IsALABAMA31985
GastonburgALABAMA32019
Oak GroveFLORIDA32016
ScoobaMISSISSIPPI31979
DuffeeMISSISSIPPI31979
DibervilleMISSISSIPPI31981
BillingsleyALABAMA22009
GrangeburgALABAMA22010
CarrolltonALABAMA22013
HoltALABAMA22024
Rock ChapelALABAMA22024
BlountstownFLORIDA22024
TelogiaFLORIDA21981
CovingtonFLORIDA21978
Ft GadsdenFLORIDA22017
BettsFLORIDA22024
Eglin A.F.B.FLORIDA22010
DolesGEORGIA22018
MaconGEORGIA22024
FinleysonGEORGIA21984
SlidellLOUISIANA21986
Pearl RiverLOUISIANA22024
LucienMISSISSIPPI21987
Mt CarmelMISSISSIPPI21992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.