BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+16%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Broad-winged Hawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±226.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±226.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±226.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.31
20260.130.000.31
20270.130.000.31
20280.130.000.32
20290.130.000.32

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MaynardARKANSAS31993
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA32007
RoselandLOUISIANA22014
KeystoneLOUISIANA22011
River RoadLOUISIANA21998
South BendARKANSAS11991
HarrisburgARKANSAS11985
SaffellARKANSAS12007
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS12024
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY12016
RayvilleLOUISIANA11967
RamahLOUISIANA12019
FloydLOUISIANA12021
BrousvilleLOUISIANA12014
GonzalesLOUISIANA12014
FrogmoreLOUISIANA12024
Port AllenLOUISIANA12001
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA12024
Baton RougeLOUISIANA12018
DundeeMISSISSIPPI12018
CommerceMISSISSIPPI11985
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI11992
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI12019
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.