BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+154%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 77% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.19–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+77%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 77% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.19–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.180.49
20260.340.180.49
20270.340.180.50
20280.340.190.50
20290.350.190.50

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NatchezLOUISIANA62018
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA52023
Burr FerryLOUISIANA32024
Fort JessupLOUISIANA32023
CaledoniaTEXAS32016
Locust BayouARKANSAS22017
HopeARKANSAS21996
BlakelyARKANSAS21999
HavanaARKANSAS22014
SpringhillARKANSAS22021
NanceARKANSAS22016
Poyen 2ARKANSAS22011
DerryLOUISIANA21989
FishvilleLOUISIANA22012
CypressLOUISIANA21981
ClayLOUISIANA22024
Flat CreekLOUISIANA22015
OakdaleLOUISIANA21994
IvanLOUISIANA22013
Ivan 2LOUISIANA22015
EvelynLOUISIANA22023
BlancoOKLAHOMA22016
Powell ParkTEXAS22010
Big Sandy BithTEXAS22023
Old MiloARKANSAS12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.