BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 250% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+250%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
147Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 250% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.26–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.26–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.240.70
20260.470.240.70
20270.480.240.71
20280.480.250.71
20290.490.260.72

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Old Forge 2NEW-YORK42017
HartfordMAINE32024
BentonMAINE31979
AuroraMAINE32021
TopsfieldMAINE31979
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE32023
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE32024
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE32023
NewcombNEW-YORK31999
New HartfordCONNECTICUT22016
WestbrookMAINE22024
ReedsMAINE22022
Otisfield GrMAINE22014
FreedomMAINE22022
HermonMAINE22019
NorthfieldMAINE21981
Moose RiverMAINE22002
BenedictaMAINE22022
MedwayMAINE22017
Forest StaMAINE21979
LudlowMAINE21996
AshlandMAINE22005
Northfield 2MAINE22018
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS22024
HancockMASSACHUSETTS22015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.