BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Broad-winged Hawk In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestBirds of prey

Broad-winged Hawk in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 257% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+257%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
148Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 257% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Broad-winged Hawk In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.27–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.27–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.500.250.74
20270.500.260.75
20280.510.260.76
20290.520.270.76
20300.520.270.77

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ReedsMAINE102025
HancockMAINE42025
Old Forge 2NEW-YORK42017
HartfordMAINE32024
BentonMAINE31979
AuroraMAINE32021
TopsfieldMAINE31979
SearsportMAINE32025
WilmotNEW-HAMPSHIRE32025
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE32023
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE32025
NewcombNEW-YORK31999
GreensboroVERMONT32025
New HartfordCONNECTICUT22016
WestbrookMAINE22024
Otisfield GrMAINE22014
FreedomMAINE22022
BrooksMAINE22021
NorthfieldMAINE21981
Moose RiverMAINE22002
BenedictaMAINE22022
Forest StaMAINE21979
LudlowMAINE21996
AshlandMAINE22005
Northfield 2MAINE22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.