BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Broad-winged Hawk In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainBirds of prey

Broad-winged Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+96%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Broad-winged Hawk In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.15
20270.070.000.15
20280.070.000.15
20290.070.000.15
20300.070.000.15

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Canadice LNEW-YORK32023
RandolphNEW-YORK22008
Cherry HillNEW-YORK21985
NashvilleNEW-YORK22018
North EastonNEW-YORK22024
HopkintonNEW-YORK22014
CloverPENNSYLVANIA22000
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA21973
ShaftsburyVERMONT22025
W ShokanNEW-YORK12018
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11995
CatskillsNEW-YORK12015
GhentNEW-YORK11993
Ballston LkNEW-YORK11983
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK12025
TrumansburgNEW-YORK12022
BranchportNEW-YORK12006
MendonNEW-YORK11995
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK12025
SheridanNEW-YORK12024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK12006
PulaskiNEW-YORK12021
N WilmurtNEW-YORK11998
OneidaNEW-YORK11989
SalemNEW-YORK12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.