BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-winged Hawk In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Broad-winged Hawk in Boreal Hardwood Transition has risen sharply: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
115Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Broad-winged Hawk has risen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.20–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-winged Hawk in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.49 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.20–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.200.59
20260.400.200.59
20270.400.200.59
20280.400.200.59
20290.400.200.60

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Broad-winged Hawk in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IrmaWISCONSIN42024
CunardMICHIGAN32016
CromwellMINNESOTA32024
FloodwoodMINNESOTA32024
OntonagonMICHIGAN22019
MareniscoMICHIGAN22018
IshpemingMICHIGAN22021
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN22022
CreightonMICHIGAN22021
IsabellaMICHIGAN21998
Hiawatha NfMICHIGAN22014
SidnawMICHIGAN22024
Island LakeMINNESOTA21992
LudeMINNESOTA22021
MahtowaMINNESOTA22023
ChisholmMINNESOTA22024
Cass LakeMINNESOTA22012
NebishMINNESOTA22023
Tamarac NwrMINNESOTA22023
MinongWISCONSIN22019
Grand ViewWISCONSIN22023
ShanagoldenWISCONSIN22024
Land O LakesWISCONSIN22015
Rib LakeWISCONSIN22017
AmbergWISCONSIN22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.