BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Broad-billed Hummingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Broad-billed Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental has increased: up 31% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+31%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Broad-billed Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Broad-billed Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Broad-billed Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.000.72
20260.260.000.72
20270.260.000.72
20280.260.000.72
20290.260.000.72

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Broad-billed Hummingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PatagoniaARIZONA52024
Peña BlancaARIZONA22024
SunizonaARIZONA21980
Mt. GrahamARIZONA22004
PomereneARIZONA12024
RedingtonARIZONA12023
AmadoARIZONA12022
McnealARIZONA12023
PortalARIZONA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.